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Friday, October 19, 2007
Initiative
This section is regarding the tools related to Initiative either in combat-oriented initiative or non-combat initiative rolls.
***Extra*** This tool adds more options and makes play even more flexible, yet should not be thought of as a foundational tool.
Initiative should not be bound so rigidly as being a set number. In certain conditions characters with low Initiatives should be given the opportunity to challenge a character with a higher Initiative. This challenge should require some type of sacrifice, possibly the integrity or quality of the attack (meaning the attack dice would be lower or a penalty would be included).
Let me explain what I mean by challenging an opponents Initiative. We know that opponents with the same Initiative will have nearly 50% chance of attacking/acting first and nearly 50% chance of being attacked/acted upon first. (I say "nearly" because in some situation both will attack/act at the same time). So, if both opponents had an Initiative of d10, one could simply not roll and use a constant five because this would insure a ratio of 1:1 success vs. failure. With this being said let us examine two different opponents with unequal Initiatives (a d10 and an d8). The odds of success for the d8 Initiative are reduced (success ratio = 1:1.67) The d8 will win ~37% of the time, and lose ~63% of the time. This ratio is equal when the d10 initiative simply uses a constant 5 and the d8 Initiative always rolled. Using this method (reserved only when the slower opponents wishes to challenge the quicker opponent) the process is simplified since only one person rolls. The challenger rolls his die against HALF of the Initiative die of the challenged.
NOTE: a character with an initiative of d4 cannot challenge an opponent of d8 or higher, likewise a d6 cannot challenge a d10 or higher, a d8 cannot challenge a d12 or higher---UNLESS some other bonus is included in the initiative roll
The sacrifice would be something simple like a reduction in the Combat Skill die. This penalty would remain even if the challenge was unsuccessful. So if the Skill die was a d8 and the player decided to challenge a quicker opponent(s), then for one round it would be reduced to a d6.
"...In certain conditions characters with low Initiatives should be given the opportunity to challenge a character with a higher Initiative."
However, your calculations are off:
d8 vs d10 d8 wins 35%, ties 10%, d10 wins 55%
For 1d8 to beat a "5" = 2/8 or 25% (or in the prior system) 1d8 vs a "4" = 3/8 or 37.5%
I like the fact you said, "The sacrifice would be something simple like a reduction in the Combat Skill die. This penalty would remain even if the challenge was unsuccessful."
Note: by using the prior system where 4 represents a 10, the 1d8 would have about the same chance (37.5% compared to 35%) of winning. However, using the proposed tentative 1-6 system, the 1d8 would have not only less of a chance of winning (25% instead of 35%), but also an unnecessary penalty of skill reduction as well.
I'm assuming you're referring to the idea of "equality of transition" from the rolled results vs the roll-vs-constant conversion, right? If so, you might want to consider the following statistical results before drawing any final conclusion:
(Initiatives) d6 challenges d8 - wins 31.25%, ties 12.5%, loses 56.25% 1-6 system: wins 33.3%, ties 16.6%, loses 50% 1-5 system: wins 50%, ties 16.6%, loses 33.3% d6 challenges d10 - wins 25%, ties 10%, loses 65% 1-6 system: wins 16.6%, ties 16.6%, loses 66.6% 1-5 system: wins 33.3%, ties 16.6%, loses 50% d6 challenges d12 - wins 20.83%, ties 8.33%, loses 70.83% 1-6 system: wins 0%, ties 16.6%, loses 83.3% 1-5 system: wins 33.3%, ties 16.6%, loses 50% d8 challenges d10 - wins 35%, ties 10%, loses 55% 1-6 system: wins 37.5%, ties 12.5%, loses 50% 1-5 system: wins 50%, ties 12.5%, loses 37.5% d8 challenges d12 - wins 29.17%, ties 8.33%, loses 62.50% 1-6 system: wins 25%, ties 12.5%, loses 62.5% 1-5 system: wins 37.5%, ties 12.5%, loses 50% d10 challenges d12 - wins 37.50%, ties 8.33%, loses 54.17% 1-6 system: wins 40%, ties 10%, loses 50% 1-5 system: wins 50%, ties 10%, loses 40%
Conclusion: There doesn't appear to be any direct correlation between the the proposed "conversion" of the higher opponent's initiative to a constant of 1-6 or 1-5, versus having two players simply roll their initiative dice.
My suggestion is to stick with the Original proposed system that I have mentioned, but include yours of reduced combat, and that is:
If any player wishes to challenge the Initiative of another player, both players simply roll their Initiative dice.
By including your suggestion, which is that the challenger is required ...a reduction in the Combat Skill die, THAT combination would work very well!
1) The stat results would be exact. 2) The amount of time it takes two people to roll their own dice is THE SAME as one rolling his own die. 3) And we are trying to limit "Conversions" in the game. The 1-6 or 1-5 conversions are for pre-game calculations. By letting both Initiatives be rolled on the spot, you maintain an ideal "grab-n-roll" system.
Ron send me the Excel program that contains this die vs die comparison information. It is not that I disagree, I just wanted to see how you devised this program. (I do agree that it is just as easy for two persons to roll dice as it is for one.) Yet, so that I do not trip on my mistake again in regards to future ideas and proposals, I wanted to see this program so that I can also do the math (more quickly).
It's a Microsoft "knock-off program" called Works Spreadsheet - it mimics the processes of Excel, but not so fancy. So if I would have convert it into Excel (~20 minutes or so at school)
P.S. I wrote all the instructions you need and it takes only about 10 seconds to enter in the required information. It can calculate two vs. two Dice and calculates shield bonuses too. It cannot calculate 2D20 from one player, unless you modify some parameters (easy to do. But it can calculate 1D20 vs 1D20, or 1D20 vs 2D12. It also can calculate larger bonuses, but it just looks like it will max out the scale.
4 comments:
***Extra*** This tool adds more options and makes play even more flexible, yet should not be thought of as a foundational tool.
Initiative should not be bound so rigidly as being a set number. In certain conditions characters with low Initiatives should be given the opportunity to challenge a character with a higher Initiative. This challenge should require some type of sacrifice, possibly the integrity or quality of the attack (meaning the attack dice would be lower or a penalty would be included).
Let me explain what I mean by challenging an opponents Initiative. We know that opponents with the same Initiative will have nearly 50% chance of attacking/acting first and nearly 50% chance of being attacked/acted upon first. (I say "nearly" because in some situation both will attack/act at the same time). So, if both opponents had an Initiative of d10, one could simply not roll and use a constant five because this would insure a ratio of 1:1 success vs. failure. With this being said let us examine two different opponents with unequal Initiatives (a d10 and an d8). The odds of success for the d8 Initiative are reduced (success ratio = 1:1.67) The d8 will win ~37% of the time, and lose ~63% of the time. This ratio is equal when the d10 initiative simply uses a constant 5 and the d8 Initiative always rolled. Using this method (reserved only when the slower opponents wishes to challenge the quicker opponent) the process is simplified since only one person rolls. The challenger rolls his die against HALF of the Initiative die of the challenged.
NOTE: a character with an initiative of d4 cannot challenge an opponent of d8 or higher, likewise a d6 cannot challenge a d10 or higher, a d8 cannot challenge a d12 or higher---UNLESS some other bonus is included in the initiative roll
The sacrifice would be something simple like a reduction in the
Combat Skill die. This penalty would remain even if the challenge was unsuccessful. So if the Skill die was a d8 and the player decided to challenge a quicker opponent(s), then for one round it would be reduced to a d6.
Good suggestions!
"...In certain conditions characters with low Initiatives should be given the opportunity to challenge a character with a higher Initiative."
However, your calculations are off:
d8 vs d10
d8 wins 35%, ties 10%, d10 wins 55%
For 1d8 to beat a "5" = 2/8 or 25%
(or in the prior system)
1d8 vs a "4" = 3/8 or 37.5%
I like the fact you said,
"The sacrifice would be something simple like a reduction in the Combat Skill die. This penalty would remain even if the challenge was unsuccessful."
Note: by using the prior system where 4 represents a 10, the 1d8 would have about the same chance (37.5% compared to 35%) of winning. However, using the proposed tentative 1-6 system, the 1d8 would have not only less of a chance of winning (25% instead of 35%), but also an unnecessary penalty of skill reduction as well.
I'm assuming you're referring to the idea of "equality of transition" from the rolled results vs the roll-vs-constant conversion, right? If so, you might want to consider the following statistical results before drawing any final conclusion:
(Initiatives)
d6 challenges d8 - wins 31.25%, ties 12.5%, loses 56.25%
1-6 system: wins 33.3%, ties 16.6%, loses 50% 1-5 system: wins 50%, ties 16.6%, loses 33.3%
d6 challenges d10 - wins 25%, ties 10%, loses 65%
1-6 system: wins 16.6%, ties 16.6%, loses 66.6% 1-5 system: wins 33.3%, ties 16.6%, loses 50%
d6 challenges d12 - wins 20.83%, ties 8.33%, loses 70.83%
1-6 system: wins 0%, ties 16.6%, loses 83.3% 1-5 system: wins 33.3%, ties 16.6%, loses 50%
d8 challenges d10 - wins 35%, ties 10%, loses 55%
1-6 system: wins 37.5%, ties 12.5%, loses 50% 1-5 system: wins 50%, ties 12.5%, loses 37.5%
d8 challenges d12 - wins 29.17%, ties 8.33%, loses 62.50%
1-6 system: wins 25%, ties 12.5%, loses 62.5% 1-5 system: wins 37.5%, ties 12.5%, loses 50%
d10 challenges d12 - wins 37.50%, ties 8.33%, loses 54.17%
1-6 system: wins 40%, ties 10%, loses 50% 1-5 system: wins 50%, ties 10%, loses 40%
Conclusion: There doesn't appear to be any direct correlation between the the proposed "conversion" of the higher opponent's initiative to a constant of 1-6 or 1-5, versus having two players simply roll their initiative dice.
My suggestion is to stick with the Original proposed system that I have mentioned, but include yours of reduced combat, and that is:
If any player wishes to challenge the Initiative of another player, both players simply roll their Initiative dice.
By including your suggestion, which is that the challenger is required ...a reduction in the Combat Skill die, THAT combination would work very well!
1) The stat results would be exact.
2) The amount of time it takes two people to roll their own dice is THE SAME as one rolling his own die.
3) And we are trying to limit "Conversions" in the game. The 1-6 or 1-5 conversions are for pre-game calculations. By letting both Initiatives be rolled on the spot, you maintain an ideal "grab-n-roll" system.
Good work, I like it.
Ron send me the Excel program that contains this die vs die comparison information. It is not that I disagree, I just wanted to see how you devised this program. (I do agree that it is just as easy for two persons to roll dice as it is for one.) Yet, so that I do not trip on my mistake again in regards to future ideas and proposals, I wanted to see this program so that I can also do the math (more quickly).
It's a Microsoft "knock-off program" called Works Spreadsheet - it mimics the processes of Excel, but not so fancy. So if I would have convert it into Excel (~20 minutes or so at school)
P.S. I wrote all the instructions you need and it takes only about 10 seconds to enter in the required information. It can calculate two vs. two Dice and calculates shield bonuses too. It cannot calculate 2D20 from one player, unless you modify some parameters (easy to do. But it can calculate 1D20 vs 1D20, or 1D20 vs 2D12. It also can calculate larger bonuses, but it just looks like it will max out the scale.
Give me some time to convert that later
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